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The Jackson Hole Mountain Resort Backcountry Report
Expanding Into New
Territory.
by Ron Matous
It’s getting easier to find the Bridger-Teton National
Forest (BTNF) Avalanche Forecast Lab. Previously tucked into a tiny loft above
the engine room of the Jackson Hole Aerial Tram, the office has this year gone
uptown--to a location just east of the Teewinot lift.
"The new space is a real plus," says Chief Forecaster
Bob Comey, who happily presides over his enlarged kingdom. "We actually have
windows now, which allow us to see the weather and control-route results," he
adds, laughing.
The office doubled in size this year but it is still
crammed with computers, phones, fax machines, and weather instruments; and maps
and photos of numerous local avalanche paths still adorn the walls. Gone,
though, are all the engine room’s brooms and buckets.
The increased space is just part of the lab’s new
dimensions. The lab is well on its way to providing true regional service.
"We had a lot of success with the new instrumentation
last year, and are now adding two more wind stations in the Togwotee and Grey’s
River areas," Comey noted. "We’ll be getting new precipitation data from the
Blind Bull summit. These changes will allow us to be more precise in our
forecasting for these areas away from the Jackson Hole Resort."
In addition to funding from the Forest Service and
support from the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, the forecast center this year
will receive another grant from the Wyoming State Trails program. The money is
earmarked for remote instrumentation in areas such as Togwotee Pass and the
Greys River drainage, allowing the network of sensors to expand. And as they
do, forecasters also keep up with wind and precipitation data over a much
larger area.
"There are other developments, too," Comey relates. "Chris McCollister has
continued to refine his GIS program, which not only maps all known avalanche
paths within the ski area, but includes our historical data on avalanche
occurrences and weather and snowpack conditions at the time, so we can try to
match current conditions with what’s happened before."
This type of program, known as a "nearest neighbor"
approach, becomes a more accurate forecasting tool as time goes on and more
data is added. Comey further notes, "Chris will be presenting his work at
this year’s International Snow Science Workshop (I.S.S.W.) Eventually he
hopes to include the backcountry slide paths in his data."
The I.S.S.W. is a biannual gathering of scientists,
ski patrolmen, highway workers, and ex-ski-bums; just about anyone who works
with or in snow and avalanches can be found there listening to presentations on
the latest research and technological developments. This year’s meeting takes
place in Penticton, British Columbia.
A five-day conference is slated for Jackson Hole in
2004, so BTNF forecasters are also continuing a study that promises to greatly
increase the knowledge of avalanche occurrences in real time. For example,
Chinook Engineering, of Sheridan, Wyoming, has been working on a system of
infrasonic detectors that, much as a seismograph allows geologists to know when
and where the earth is shaking, will allow forecasters to keep track of
avalanches as they occur--even dozens of miles away.
"This is no longer in the experimental stage," Bob
states excitedly. "Last year’s trial run (of infrasonic detectors) was highly
successful. The gist of it is that avalanches produce low-frequency sound waves
which can be picked up dozens of miles away. By having a set of infrasonic
detectors at several locations, we can not only pick up on activity as it
occurs, but triangulate to figure out its location. Just imagine sitting here
in the dark, with one inch an hour piling up on the deck rails, and being able
to say: ‘I believe a big slide just came off of the east face of Teewinot.’
This might sound like science fiction, but we’re getting close to that sort of
capability."
Comey points to a fascinating and growing body of
information spawned in the last few years. "The data gathered last season," he
adds, "show a clear signature where the sound of an avalanche, spread over
about a minute, overrides the background noise at infrasonic frequencies. We’ll
continue to refine the data analysis so that we can be sure of separating
avalanche signals from the background. Then the goal for the 2003-2004 season
is to set up an array of sensors around the ski area to see how precise our
triangulation can be."
 No amount of technology, however, is going to let Bob
Comey sleep in. Taking shifts along
with ski patrolmen Jim Farmer, Mike Rheam, and Terry Schramm, a minimum of two
forecasters a day arrive at the lab at 5 a.m. each morning to begin the day’s
work. After checking the current weather via the remote instruments, they
inform the National Weather Service in Riverton, Wyoming, of what’s happened
overnight. While waiting for Riverton to respond with the day’s Rendezvous Peak
(RPK) forecast, they’ll be busy looking at satellite loops and checking the
answering and fax machines for any reports of avalanche activity the day
before.
Naturally, all of this information has to be digested
to produce the avalanche forecast web page, the phone recording, and an
avalanche control plan for the ski patrol. And on days when the patrol has to
be heading up the mountain by 7 a.m., the forecasters are right there with
them, either heading up the tram or hiking to the top of the headwall to see
what kind of results the hazard reduction produces.
Once the resort is open to the public, the crew heads
for various study plots to check on the instruments, dig pits to look at
snowpack conditions, and perhaps visit the sites of any avalanche activity to
see what layer they’re sliding on. And in the afternoon, a weather update has
to be sent to Riverton to aid in producing the next day’s forecast, so the
cycle can begin again.
The newest incarnation of the lab’s web page,
jhavalanche.org, allows anyone to check the various study plots at the Village
and outlying areas. "One of the most important things people can do to help
us," Comey points out, "is to report any avalanche activity in a timely
fashion. Either a phone message to our reporting line at 739-2759 or a click on
the e-mail observation form at the bottom of the web page goes a long way
towards keeping our forecasts accurate. And we need details: time, location,
size, trigger, whether people were involved or not. You’d be amazed at the number
of calls we get that say, ‘I saw an avalanche yesterday.’ And they hang up. That’s like telling me the
sun’s going to come up."
Comey and his crew have aid, but they need more. "This
year," he says, "the folks at Life-Link have helped by making up stickers which
can be found at many of the local climbing and ski shops. The one dollar
donation for these, which list our forecast phone number and web page address,
goes towards funding for the avalanche center and helps us maintain our
program."
He concludes, "There’s no reason to go out in
ignorance: either dial up the avalanche forecast at 733-2664 or check the web
page and get the big picture. If we can
save one life, all the early mornings are worth it.
Ron Matous is a senior guide at Exum, an instructor at
the American Avalanche Institute, and the writer of "Excursion," a weekly
column in the Jackson Hole News. Expanding Into
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